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Futures: Difference between revisions
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Futures research, or futures studies, is a broad field that explores potential futures to better understand and prepare for possible changes and developments across various domains, including society, ecologies and technologies. | Futures research, or futures studies, is a broad field that explores potential futures to better understand and prepare for possible changes and developments across various domains, including society, ecologies and technologies. | ||
There are diverse approaches to Futures, but a key issue across all approaches is the inherent deep uncertainty of the future. This involves a fundamental ambiguity where the range of possible alternatives and outcomes can not be accurately predicted, preventing any clear assignment of probabilities. This uncertainty is particularly critical in the context of the current polycrisis, and the unprecedented challenges associated with climate change, economic instability, social inequality, geopolitical conflict and multi-species justice. | There are diverse approaches to Futures, but a key issue across all approaches is the inherent deep uncertainty of the future. This involves a fundamental ambiguity where the range of possible alternatives and outcomes can not be accurately predicted, preventing any clear assignment of probabilities. This uncertainty is particularly critical in the context of the current polycrisis, and the unprecedented challenges associated with climate change, economic instability, social inequality, geopolitical conflict and multi-species justice. <ref>Haraway, Donna. Staying with the Trouble: Making Kin in the Chthulucene. Duke University Press, 2016</ref>. | ||
==== Ecological Knowledge ==== | ==== Ecological Knowledge ==== | ||
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==== Strategic Foresight ==== | ==== Strategic Foresight ==== | ||
During the Cold War, the need to anticipate technological and geopolitical changes led to the refinement of Futures research. | During the Cold War, the need to anticipate technological and geopolitical changes led to the refinement of Futures research. | ||
Over the next sixty years, futures research evolved from basic forecasting to complex, creative methodologies: starting with the RAND Corporation's post-World War Two scenarios, evolving into the systemic thinking of the 1970s, and the development of computational techniques, global modelling and machine learning. Governments, businesses, and academic institutions adopted foresight techniques to better anticipate and prepare for a wider range of potential future disruptions amidst rapidly changing events and unpredictable developments. | |||
Strategic Foresight uses techniques like scenario planning and trend analysis to anticipate and influence future outcomes. Unlike predictions and forecasting, Strategic Foresight made use of qualitative methods to navigate complex, volatile uncertainty and the “wicked problems” about the future. In recent decades, Sohail Inayatullah's "Six Pillars" framework and causal layered analysis (CLA) transformed futures studies by including multiple perspectives, societal narratives, worldviews, myths and metaphors in commonly used research practices.<ref>Inayatullah, Sohail. "[https://www.metafuture.org/library1/FuturesStudies/Six-pillars-Foresight-2008.pdf Six Pillars: Futures Thinking for Transforming]". Foresight, 10(1), 4-21, 2008.</ref>. This evolution reflects a growing emphasis on complexity, inclusivity, creativity and the weird in anticipatory and readiness research. | |||
==== Scenarios ==== | ==== Scenarios ==== | ||
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Live Action Role-Playing (LARP), developed by the Nordic LARP community is a playful, immersive and participatory method to engage diverse audiences in exploring contemporary societal challenges and future scenarios. It involves participants role-playing particular characters within time-based creative scenarios to explore different futures and outcomes, engaging audiences in group problem-solving and collective imagination. <ref>op de Beke, Laura. Long Story: Playing With Deep Time. Oslo School of Environmental Humanities, 2022. Web. https://lodbeke.itch.io/long-story-a-deep-time-larp.</ref> | Live Action Role-Playing (LARP), developed by the Nordic LARP community is a playful, immersive and participatory method to engage diverse audiences in exploring contemporary societal challenges and future scenarios. It involves participants role-playing particular characters within time-based creative scenarios to explore different futures and outcomes, engaging audiences in group problem-solving and collective imagination. <ref>op de Beke, Laura. Long Story: Playing With Deep Time. Oslo School of Environmental Humanities, 2022. Web. https://lodbeke.itch.io/long-story-a-deep-time-larp.</ref> | ||
Playful Readiness Scenarios | |||
Link to [[Playful Scenarios|Playful Readiness Scenarios]] | |||
== Citations == | == Citations == | ||
<references/> | <references/> | ||