Futures: Difference between revisions

There are diverse approaches to Futures, but a key issue across all approaches is the inherent deep uncertainty of the future. This involves a fundamental ambiguity where the range of possible alternatives and outcomes can not be accurately predicted, preventing any clear assignment of probabilities. This uncertainty is particularly critical in the context of the current polycrisis, and the unprecedented challenges associated with climate change, economic instability, social inequality, geopolitical conflict and multi-species justice.

Indigenous knowledge systems need to be at the beginning of this story, having played a vital role in sustainability and resilience for millennia. Understanding of ecological dynamics and potential futures held in Indigenous communities is deeply rooted in lived relationships with place: these relationships are characterised by reciprocal responsibilities and stewardship. Indigenous Knowledge Systems are about more than observing the environment, maintaining and renewing relationships with nature and all living beings is part of the protocol. [Kyle Powys Whyte] This relational approach grows insight into natural cycles and long-term ecological changes, enabling Indigenous communities to make informed predictions and decisions about what is coming. [see Responsibility, Environmental Justice]

In the European context, Futures research became formalised during and after the World Wars, as a result of intense collective focus on anticipating and preparing for future military and geopolitical scenarios. Structured methods for long-term planning, systemic thinking and strategic foresight were elaborated that emphasised prediction and control of future unknowns, attempting to minimise the threat of being blindsided by unforeseen events.

Modern-day Futures studies considers a broad range of potential futures, including social changes, environmental shifts and transformations in science and technology. The interdisciplinary Futures field includes ecology, sociology, economics, anthropology, history, philosophy, Indigenous research and political science, along with various creative techniques across domains for exploring uncertain, complex emergence. This includes scenario planning, performance worlds and imaginative methods, and Decolonial and More-than-Human perspectives that challenge cultural and personal bias, limited assumptions and expectations, and work to expand, enrich and improve imaginative attention, planning and policymaking.

Cybernetics is the study of control and communication across animals and machines. Originating in the 1940s with Norbert Wiener, cybernetics framed the world as consisting of systems—biological and technical—exploring how systems regulate themselves through feedback loops, and examining the dynamics by which they maintain stability and achieve goals through adaptive mechanisms. Second-order cybernetics, developed in the 1970s by Heinz von Foerster, was extended by Gregory Bateson emphasising the integral role of the observer within systems [Bateson, Gregory. Steps to an Ecology of Mind. University of Chicago Press, 1972., Macy Conference]. Bateson’s approach highlighted the subjectivity and reflexivity in understanding complex systems, and the connection between ecological, social, and mental systems.

During the Cold War, the need to anticipate technological and geopolitical changes led to the refinement of Futures research. Strategic Foresight uses techniques like scenario planning and trend analysis to anticipate and influence future outcomes. Governments, businesses, and academic institutions adopted foresight techniques to better anticipate and prepare for a wider range of potential future disruptions amidst rapidly changing events and unpredictable developments. Unlike predictions and forecasting, Strategic Foresight made use of qualitative methods to navigate complex, volatile uncertainty and the “wicked problems” about the future.

Co-design promotes bottom-up processes as a means of addressing inclusion and actively welcoming citizen involvement and civic activism into research and design work. Originating from participatory design practices in 1970s Scandinavia, Co-Design invites communities, particularly stakeholders and those directly impacted, into the design processes itself. Co-design methods strive to apply collaborative techniques to both the questions about futures—working out what is needed—and also the design outcomes—how these needs are answered. Often employed in grassroots initiatives, Co-Design is used to engage communities in shaping communal spaces, infrastructure, as well as public policies and new democratic practices and urban governance methods in the hope of actively taking on board the real needs and preferences of people impacted. [See governance, citizens assemblies]

==== Decolonial Futures ====

Decolonial Futures can reference a whole variety of practices that emphasise plural futures and place-based imaginaries. This work is fed by the work of thinkers like Eduardo Viveiros de Castro, who advocate for considering plural, alternative futures rather than speaking about a general singular "future for all". Methods emphasising Decolonial Futures includes imaginative practices and attuning to distinct place-based imaginaries, welcoming perspectives from the Global Majority, from disability work and feminist frameworks, challenging heteronormative and Euro-American biases in future scenario planning.

Live Action Role-Playing (LARP), developed by the Nordic LARP community is a playful, immersive and participatory method to engage diverse audiences in exploring contemporary societal challenges and future scenarios. It involves participants role-playing particular characters within time-based creative scenarios to explore different futures and outcomes, engaging audiences in group problem-solving and collective imagination.

=== Citations ===